Mets Bet of the Day for May 15

Mets Bet of the Day

I make the number for Holmes to have under 4.5 Ks -117, so getting it at +119 means either myself or the market is way off.

BtrBet's model makes the number -113, so I'm assuming that it is the market that is off since Holmes has had 6 Ks in each of his last three starts and the pitcher strikeout markets seem to generally be priced against recent performance more so than season-to-date performance.

I made this trade at Kalshi, but +115 looks to be available at most recreational books.