Mets Bet of the Day for May 16

Mets Bet of the Day

Brett Baty over 0.5 hits (-135)

Looking at Baty’s regular season numbers, he has: 29 hits in 126 at bats A .230 batting average 38 strikeouts against 13 walks

At first glance, .230 doesn’t jump off the page. But for a hits prop, what matters is converting batting average into the probability of recording at least one hit across multiple at bats.

If Baty gets 4 at bats tonight, the probability of him recording at least one hit works out to:

1 − (1 − .230)^4 ≈ 64.9%

That implies fair odds around -185.

The best available price right now is -135 at BetMGM, which implies only a 57.4% probability.

There’s still uncertainty in the estimate, of course. Fisher Information is one way to quantify how reliable the batting sample is. In plain English: every additional at bat gives us more information about Baty’s underlying hitting ability and reduces the likelihood that the observed average is just random noise.

With 126 regular season at bats already logged, the sample is becoming reasonably informative — enough that the market price of -135 appears somewhat cheap relative to the raw season-to-date baseline.