Mets Bet of the Day for May 20

Mets Bet of the Day

Mets team total hits under 9.5 (-130)

The Mets offense has been running hot lately, averaging: • 9.33 hits/game over their last 3 • 9.40 hits/game over their last 5 • 8.60 hits/game over their last 10

But zooming out matters.

Over their last 25 games, the Mets are averaging exactly 7.0 hits per game. The recent spike is being driven heavily by a few outlier performances, including 15-hit and 18-hit games that materially pull the short-term averages upward.

That’s where variance and Fisher Information become useful ways to think about team totals. Short samples contain less information and are more sensitive to extreme outcomes. Longer samples accumulate more Fisher Information, meaning they tend to give a more stable estimate of a team’s underlying offensive production.

In other words: a three-game heater tells us something, but a 25-game sample tells us much more.

At 9.5 hits, the books are hanging a number materially above the Mets’ longer-term baseline and slightly above even their recent 5-game average.

At -130, the market is clearly respecting the recent offensive surge. But from a regression-to-the-mean perspective, the under still appears to have some mathematical support unless you believe the Mets’ true offensive level has fundamentally shifted upward over the last week.