Mets Bet of the Day for May 21

Mets Bet of the Day

Cade Cavalli under 4.5 strikeouts

The last time the Mets faced Cavalli, he accounted for 10 of the team’s 12 strikeouts.

Even with that recent result hanging over the market, the broader numbers tell a more balanced story.

Cavalli is averaging: • 4.43 Ks/game across all starts • 4.67 Ks/game over his last 3 • 5.20 Ks/game over his last 10

Meanwhile, the Mets lineup is striking out: • 5.67 times/game over their last 3 • 5.80 over their last 5 • 6.96 over their last 25

That’s important because the market often overweights the most recent matchup while underweighting the larger sample.

The BtrBet model currently prices: • P(≤ 4.5 Ks) ≈ 55.2% • Fair odds ≈ -123

I was able to grab +112 and +116 at ProphetX, which creates a substantial edge versus the model baseline.

Cavalli’s strikeout profile still carries a fair amount of uncertainty. His recent spike in strikeouts includes a couple of major outlier performances, including back-to-back 10-strikeout games that materially inflate the short-term averages.

The books appear to be pricing Cavalli closer to his recent ceiling than his longer-term baseline. Against a Mets lineup whose strikeout rate has actually been trending downward recently, the under still looks attractive at plus money.