Buehler? Buehler? Over?

Two pitcher K props I’m looking at today:

Colin Rea under 3.5 strikeouts Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts

Rea’s season average is sitting right around the number at 3.57 K/G, but the recent shape is softer: 3.00 K/G over his last 3, 2.80 K/G over his last 5, and 3.30 K/G over his last 10. At a 3.5 line, that makes the under interesting if you think the recent lower-K version is the better read.

Buehler is the opposite side of the same threshold. His season average is 4.30 K/G, and the recent sample has moved up: 5.67 K/G over his last 3, 5.40 K/G over his last 5, and 4.60 K/G over his last 10. The 3.5 line gives some room below his recent strikeout pace.

Neither play needs a heroic projection. One is a fade of a pitcher trending below the number. The other is backing a pitcher whose recent K output has cleared it with room.

As always: price matters. I’d rather be right at the best available number than right at a lazy one.