As a Mets fan, this season has mostly been an exercise in finding new and creative ways to lower my expectations. The team has been bad enough that I am no longer asking for joy. I am simply looking for isolated pockets of competence.

Today, that means betting against one of our own pitchers.

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Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeouts at -132

Peralta returns to Milwaukee to face his former team, and I am betting that familiarity does not produce a vintage strikeout performance. He is now pitching for the Mets after being acquired from the Brewers during the offseason.

Peralta has averaged 5.04 strikeouts per start this season, with that number sitting at 5.0 over his last ten and 4.6 over his last five. He has recorded six or more strikeouts in only two of his last ten starts.

The workload is part of the under case. Peralta has averaged five innings per start this season and over his last ten, but only 4.1 innings across both his last five and last three. His strikeout rate per inning remains respectable, yet a shorter outing leaves less room to clear a line of 5.5.

Milwaukee is not an especially soft strikeout matchup, either. Brewers hitters have averaged 7.92 strikeouts over their last 25 games, 7.7 over their last ten, and 7.33 over their last three. That is enough swing-and-miss to give Peralta a path to six, but not enough to make it the expected outcome.

The model gives Peralta a 57.7% probability of finishing with five strikeouts or fewer, equivalent to approximately -136. I bet the under at -132, so the edge is modest rather than overwhelming.

This is ultimately a bet on opportunity. Peralta has reached six strikeouts in each of his last two starts, but he needed only a little more than four innings per appearance to do it. I am betting that he does not combine that same strikeout efficiency with enough innings for a third consecutive over.

Former Brewer, familiar lineup, modest workload.

I will take under 5.5 and hope Milwaukee remembers how to make him work.