A Littell Room Above the Line

Zack Littell over 2.5 strikeouts at -142

This is a low strikeout line for a pitcher whose recent workload has become much more stable.

Littell has recorded at least three strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances, including five straight. Over that recent stretch, he has also been working deeper into games:

• 4.67 strikeouts per game over his last three
• 4.00 strikeouts per game over his last five
• 5.1 innings per game over his last five
• 0.77 strikeouts per inning over his last five

He does not need a dominant outing to clear this number. At his recent workload, Littell only needs to maintain a strikeout rate of roughly 0.6 Ks per inning to reach three strikeouts, which is below both his recent rate and his full-sample average of 0.67 Ks per inning.

The chart estimates a 62.1% probability that Littell records at least three strikeouts, equivalent to a fair price around -164. The offered price of -142 carries a break-even probability of approximately 58.7%.

With Littell consistently pitching around five innings and clearing this line in each of his last five starts, I am betting him to record at least three strikeouts again.