I am back on the WNBA player-points unders, this time across the Dallas-Los Angeles and Atlanta-Chicago games.

As with the previous card, these are not four versions of the same wager. Some are based on a line sitting above the player’s normal production. Others are bets that recent scoring has pushed the market a little too far. The common thread is that the model makes each under more likely than the price I was able to bet.

----

**Azzi Fudd under 14.5 points at +108**

Fudd’s line sits above every scoring average shown on her points-per-game chart.

She has averaged 12.92 points for the season, 13.9 over her last ten games, 12.4 over her last five, and 13.67 over her last three. Her minutes have increased substantially, but the added playing time has not produced a matching increase in scoring efficiency. She is averaging 0.39 points per minute over her last three games and 0.37 over her last five, compared with 0.43 for the season.

Fudd has shown that she can clear this number, including several games above 20, but most of her results have landed below 15. The model gives her an 80.5% probability of finishing at 14 points or fewer.

Getting plus money on an outcome the model makes considerably more likely than a coin flip was enough for me to play the under.

----

**Dearica Hamby under 15.5 points at -121**

Hamby is the tightest statistical case of the four based on her recent averages.

She has averaged 15.5 points over her last ten games and 15.6 over her last five, placing the line almost directly on top of her recent production. Her season average, however, is lower at 14.19 points, and she has averaged just 13.33 over her last three.

The recent game log also shows a wide range of outcomes. Hamby has several performances comfortably above the number, but she has also finished in the low teens or single digits often enough that 15.5 remains a meaningful threshold.

The model gives the under a 72.7% probability, equivalent to roughly -267. I was able to bet it at -121.

This is less about expecting Hamby to disappear from the offense and more about betting that she does not need to reach the upper half of her scoring distribution again.

----

**Paige Bueckers under 22.5 points at -110**

This is the most uncomfortable under on the card.

Bueckers has averaged 22.9 points over her last ten games, 23.6 over her last five, and 23.67 over her last three. Her minutes have also climbed, reaching 35 or more per game across each recent sample.

Those numbers make a reasonable case for the over. They also help explain why the market has moved her line into the 20s.

The under case is that 22.5 still requires another strong scoring performance. Her full-season average is 20.28 points, and she has finished at 22 points or fewer in a majority of the games this seaso. Her recent averages have also been lifted by several large performances, including a game in the mid-30s.

The model gives Bueckers an 88.7% probability of staying at 22 points or fewer. That estimate is much stronger than the recent averages alone would suggest, so this is the bet where I am leaning most heavily on the model’s view of the full distribution rather than a simple trend-line argument.

Recent form says danger. The price says coin flip. The model says under.
----

**Rhyne Howard under 18.5 points at -115**

Howard’s recent scoring trend has moved sharply downward.

She has averaged 16.88 points for the season and 16.1 over her last ten games, both already below tonight’s line. That average falls to 13.8 over her last five and just 10.33 over her last three.

The minutes have remained steady, so the decline is not primarily the result of reduced playing time. Her scoring efficiency has fallen from 0.51 points per minute for the season to 0.41 over her last five and 0.32 over her last three.

Howard has the volume and ceiling to beat 18.5, but she has now finished below the number in six of the last nine games, including three consecutive games at 11 points or fewer.

The model assigns an 81.0% probability to the under, equivalent to approximately -427. At -115, I am betting that the market is still placing too much weight on Howard’s name and scoring ceiling relative to her recent production.

----

Taken together, the card offers four different under cases.

Fudd’s line sits above each of her relevant scoring averages, and I was able to bet it at plus money. Hamby’s number rests near her recent average but above her season-long baseline. Bueckers is the contrarian play against a strong recent scoring run. Howard’s production and efficiency have both been trending downward while her line remains above her season average.

Four players. Four unders. Two games.

Now I just need the rims in Dallas and Atlanta to become slightly less cooperative than usual.


Low Expectations, High Conviction

I am betting four WNBA player-points unders, but these are not all the same bet wearing different jerseys. Each one is based on a slightly different combination of recent scoring, expected minutes, season-long production, and the distance between the posted line and the player’s typical output.

-----

**Caitlin Clark under 17.5 points**
Clark is obviously capable of clearing this number in a hurry, so there is no pretending that an under against her is ever especially comfortable. The case is that her recent production has moved in the opposite direction of the reputation still attached to her name.

She has averaged 15.4 points over her last five games and just 11.3 over her last three. Her playing time has also been limited recently, with averages of 23.0 minutes over the last five and 22.0 over the last three.

The model gives her a 61.9% probability of finishing at 17 points or fewer, equivalent to roughly -162. At a line of 17.5, I am betting that the market is pricing more of the name than the current scoring environment.

-----

**Sophie Cunningham under 8.5 points**
This is the closest call of the four.

Cunningham has averaged 9.1 points over her last ten games, 10.0 over her last five, and 13.0 over her last three. Those recent numbers do not make the under look obvious at first glance.

The counterargument is that she has also been one of the more volatile scorers on the board. Her season average is 9.38 points, but that includes a few large performances surrounded by plenty of games near or below this number. Her last-ten scoring rate is only 0.39 points per minute, and she has averaged 23.3 minutes during that span.

The model makes the under a 55.8% outcome, or about -126. It is not the largest projected edge here, but 8.5 is still a meaningful threshold for a player whose scoring distribution has been much less consistent than her recent average alone might suggest.

----

**Dominique Malonga under 17.5 points**
Malonga’s number creates the clearest gap between the posted total and her ordinary production.

She has averaged 14.95 points for the season, 15.3 over her last ten, 13.0 over her last five, and 13.67 over her last three. Every one of those averages sits below tonight’s line.

She has certainly shown the ceiling to get past 17.5, including several games comfortably above 20, but those performances have been the exceptions rather than the baseline. Most of her results have landed in the low-to-mid teens, and her recent minutes have remained in the mid-20s rather than expanding enough to justify a substantially higher expectation.

The model gives Malonga an 86.4% probability of staying at 17 points or fewer, equivalent to approximately -635. I would not treat that number as a guarantee, because basketball remains very good at humiliating confident projections, but it does show how far 17.5 sits above the model’s central expectation.

----

**Lexie Hull under 9.5 points**
Hull has scored fewer than 10 points in 17 of the 20 games shown on the chart. Her season average is 5.96 points, with averages of 6.0 over her last ten and 4.0 over her last three.

She has produced a few double-digit games, but she has also finished with two points or fewer several times. Her season scoring rate is 0.29 points per minute, and she has averaged just over 20 minutes per game.

For Hull to beat this line, she likely needs either an unusually efficient shooting performance or a larger offensive role than she typically receives. The model assigns a 94.2% probability to 9 points or fewer, making this the strongest statistical under of the four.

-----

Taken together, this is not simply a bet that every game turns into a rock fight. Clark’s under leans on reduced recent scoring and minutes. Cunningham’s relies on volatility and a line sitting near the upper edge of her normal range. Malonga’s line is well above each of her relevant scoring averages. Hull’s number requires her to nearly double her season-long production.

Four players. Four unders. Four different paths to the same destination.

Now we wait to see whether the scoring stays under control, or whether someone decides tonight is the perfect time to shoot 7-for-8 from three.


Under the Weather: Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever

With the New York Liberty-Dallas Wings game postponed, all of my WNBA action today is concentrated in Portland-Washington.

I’m attacking the player-points unders:
- Michaela Onyenwere under 9.5
- Carla Leite under 15.5
- Shakira Austin under 15.5 (bet this one twice!)
- Bridget Carleton under 12.5
- Emily Engstler under 10.5
- Sarah Ashlee Barker under 9.5

It is a lot of exposure to one game, but the positions are based on each player’s individual scoring outlook rather than one broad game script. I'm banking on both teams playing a defensive game and it should be a fun one to watch.

Mystics Under Fire

If you’re still betting props from one book with one price, you’re probably leaving money on the table.

In this video, I walk through how I’m using BtrBet to find MLB pitcher strikeout props, compare the market, and track whether the process is actually profitable.

Tonight’s two bets:
- Janson Junk **under 3.5 Ks** at +102
- Framber Valdez **under 4.5 Ks** at +135

So far in 2026, my tracked MLB pitcher strikeout bets are:
- **39 wagers**
- **$585 wagered**
- **$37.88 profit**
- **6.47% ROI**

Nothing magic. No vibes-only card. Just a repeatable process for finding props, betting them at the best available price, and checking the receipts over time.

Watch the video, then try the same workflow on tonight’s board.

Using BtrBet to profitably bet MLB pitcher strikeout markets

Two pitcher K props I’m looking at today:

**Colin Rea under 3.5 strikeouts**
**Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts**

Rea’s season average is sitting right around the number at **3.57 K/G**, but the recent shape is softer: **3.00 K/G over his last 3**, **2.80 K/G over his last 5**, and **3.30 K/G over his last 10**. At a 3.5 line, that makes the under interesting if you think the recent lower-K version is the better read.

Buehler is the opposite side of the same threshold. His season average is **4.30 K/G**, and the recent sample has moved up: **5.67 K/G over his last 3**, **5.40 K/G over his last 5**, and **4.60 K/G over his last 10**. The 3.5 line gives some room below his recent strikeout pace.

Neither play needs a heroic projection. One is a fade of a pitcher trending below the number. The other is backing a pitcher whose recent K output has cleared it with room.

As always: price matters. I’d rather be right at the best available number than right at a lazy one.


Buehler? Buehler? Over?

**Diff of the Day**

Grant Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts is currently:
-108 at Prophet X
-115 at FanDuel
-125 at Hard Rock and Caesars
-130 at theScore
-131 at DraftKings

At -108, my $10 bet returns $9.26 profit.
At -131, that same $10 bet returns just $7.63 profit.

That’s a 21.4% increase in profit for the exact same outcome simply from getting the best available line.

The BtrBet model currently prices Holmes under 4.5 Ks around -137 fair, so getting -108 at Prophet X is not just the best line on the board — it’s also materially ahead of the model’s estimated fair value.


Diff of Day for May 23

**Mets Bet of the Day**

Cade Cavalli under 4.5 strikeouts

The last time the Mets faced Cavalli, he accounted for 10 of the team’s 12 strikeouts.

Even with that recent result hanging over the market, the broader numbers tell a more balanced story.

Cavalli is averaging:
• 4.43 Ks/game across all starts
• 4.67 Ks/game over his last 3
• 5.20 Ks/game over his last 10

Meanwhile, the Mets lineup is striking out:
• 5.67 times/game over their last 3
• 5.80 over their last 5
• 6.96 over their last 25

That’s important because the market often overweights the most recent matchup while underweighting the larger sample.

The BtrBet model currently prices:
• P(≤ 4.5 Ks) ≈ 55.2%
• Fair odds ≈ -123

I was able to grab +112 and +116 at ProphetX, which creates a substantial edge versus the model baseline.

Cavalli’s strikeout profile still carries a fair amount of uncertainty. His recent spike in strikeouts includes a couple of major outlier performances, including back-to-back 10-strikeout games that materially inflate the short-term averages.

The books appear to be pricing Cavalli closer to his recent ceiling than his longer-term baseline. Against a Mets lineup whose strikeout rate has actually been trending downward recently, the under still looks attractive at plus money.


Mets Bet of the Day for May 21

**Mets Bet of the Day**

Mets team total hits under 9.5 (-130)

The Mets offense has been running hot lately, averaging:
• 9.33 hits/game over their last 3
• 9.40 hits/game over their last 5
• 8.60 hits/game over their last 10

But zooming out matters.

Over their last 25 games, the Mets are averaging exactly 7.0 hits per game. The recent spike is being driven heavily by a few outlier performances, including 15-hit and 18-hit games that materially pull the short-term averages upward.

That’s where variance and Fisher Information become useful ways to think about team totals. Short samples contain less information and are more sensitive to extreme outcomes. Longer samples accumulate more Fisher Information, meaning they tend to give a more stable estimate of a team’s underlying offensive production.

In other words: a three-game heater tells us something, but a 25-game sample tells us much more.

At 9.5 hits, the books are hanging a number materially above the Mets’ longer-term baseline and slightly above even their recent 5-game average.

At -130, the market is clearly respecting the recent offensive surge. But from a regression-to-the-mean perspective, the under still appears to have some mathematical support unless you believe the Mets’ true offensive level has fundamentally shifted upward over the last week.


Mets Bet of the Day for May 20

**Diff of the Day**

Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts -134 at FanDuel

Most books are hanging 3.5 right now, though BetMGM briefly pushed all the way to 4.5 before offering a pretty ugly alt line price on the over 3.5. That immediately caught my attention because it suggests at least some disagreement about Junk’s true strikeout distribution tonight.

Looking only at Junk’s season average, the line looks efficient. He’s averaging just under 3.5 Ks per game overall. But the recent trend tells a different story:
• Last 3 starts: 5.33 Ks/game
• Last 5 starts: 4.40 Ks/game
• Last 10 starts: 3.80 Ks/game

BtrBet’s built-in Bayesian model still leans under 3.5, which made me pause for a second. But this is where context matters more than blindly trusting a single model output.

The Braves have been striking out at an elevated rate recently:
• 11 Ks yesterday vs Miami
• 9 Ks the game before
• Last 10 average: 7.10 Ks/game
That matters because strikeout props are interaction markets. It’s not just “how good is the pitcher?”, it is also “how likely is this specific lineup to create strikeout opportunities tonight?”

Junk’s recent form appears to be improving at the same time as Atlanta’s batters have been generating above-average strikeout volume. That combination pushed me toward the over despite the baseline model leaning under.

Shopping around mattered too:
• ProphetX: -139
• FanDuel: -134
• BetMGM alt line: significantly worse

Ended up taking -134 at FanDuel for the best widely available number.

Sometimes an edge comes from realizing the player trend and opponent trend are moving in the same direction before the market fully reconciles both.


Diff of the Day for May 20

**Diff of the Day**

Keider Montero under 3.5 strikeouts (-122 at ProphetX)

Montero has 33 strikeouts across 10 starts this season — 3.3 Ks per game. At first glance, a 3.5 line looks almost perfectly efficient. But strikeout props are one of the clearest examples of why Fisher Information matters in betting markets.

Ten starts sounds like a lot. In reality, it’s still a relatively small information set for determining a pitcher’s “true” strikeout ability. One extra inning, one favorable umpire, or one swing-heavy lineup can dramatically distort the observed average. That uncertainty becomes even more important when information velocity accelerates throughout the day.

Pitcher strikeout props are extremely sensitive to:
• lineup announcements
• projected pitch count
• weather
• catcher assignments
• umpire tendencies
• market sentiment

And today’s market movement reflects that. Books gradually pushed the under price from the low -110s toward the current -122 to -130 range without materially moving the 3.5 line itself. That’s often a sign the market is becoming more confident in the probability distribution while still resisting a full line move.

Montero’s recent form:
2 Ks
4 Ks
2 Ks

Last 3 average: 2.67 Ks.

The market appears to be updating toward the idea that his true strikeout expectation may be lower than the raw season average suggests.
In strikeout prop markets, the edge often comes from recognizing when the market is still processing information — before the number itself finally moves.

Diff of the Day for May 19

**Diff of the Day**

The Atlanta Braves moneyline is currently:

+106 at Prophet X
+101 at bet105
-102 at Circa Sports and FanDuel
-105 at BetMGM, Hard Rock, Caesars, theScore, and DraftKings

At +106, a $100 bet returns $106 profit.
At -105, that same $100 bet returns just $95.24 profit.

That’s an 11.3% increase in profit simply from getting the best available line instead of betting into the worst widely available number.

Over hundreds or thousands of bets, consistently capturing these pricing differences can matter as much as handicapping the games themselves.


Diff of the Day for May 18

**Mets Bet of the Day**

Brett Baty over 0.5 hits (-135)

Looking at Baty’s regular season numbers, he has:
29 hits in 126 at bats
A .230 batting average
38 strikeouts against 13 walks

At first glance, .230 doesn’t jump off the page. But for a hits prop, what matters is converting batting average into the probability of recording at least one hit across multiple at bats.

If Baty gets 4 at bats tonight, the probability of him recording at least one hit works out to:

1 − (1 − .230)^4 ≈ 64.9%

That implies fair odds around -185.

The best available price right now is -135 at BetMGM, which implies only a 57.4% probability.

There’s still uncertainty in the estimate, of course. Fisher Information is one way to quantify how reliable the batting sample is. In plain English: every additional at bat gives us more information about Baty’s underlying hitting ability and reduces the likelihood that the observed average is just random noise.

With 126 regular season at bats already logged, the sample is becoming reasonably informative — enough that the market price of -135 appears somewhat cheap relative to the raw season-to-date baseline.


Mets Bet of the Day for May 16

**Diff of the Day**

The Brewers moneyline is currently:
-118 at bet105
-119 at Prophet X
-124 at FanDuel
-125 at BetMGM, Circa Sports, Hard Rock, and Caesars
-126 at DraftKings
-130 at theScore

At -118, a $100 bet returns $84.75 profit.
At -130, that same $100 bet returns just $76.92 profit. That’s a 9.24% reduction in profit compared to the best widely available price.

The market outcome is uncertain. The price difference isn’t.

Most bettors spend hours trying to predict games while ignoring the one variable they can actually control: the number they bet into.

Over time, better prices quietly compound into better results. That’s the entire game.

Diff of the Day for May 16

**Mets Bet of the Day**

I make the number for Holmes to have under 4.5 Ks -117, so getting it at +119 means either myself or the market is way off.

BtrBet's model makes the number -113, so I'm assuming that it is the market that is off since Holmes has had 6 Ks in each of his last three starts and the pitcher strikeout markets seem to generally be priced against recent performance more so than season-to-date performance.

I made this trade at Kalshi, but +115 looks to be available at most recreational books.

Mets Bet of the Day for May 15

**Diff of the Day**

The Guardians are currently:
-129 @ bet105
-137 @ Kalshi
-145 @ Caesars

At -129, a $100 bet returns $77.52 profit.

At -145, that same $100 bet returns just $68.97 profit. That's an 8.55% reduction in profit compared to the best widely available price.

Kalshi’s -137 lands between at $72.99, a profit that is 4.53% lower than at bet105.

Three markets.
Same game.
Three different prices for uncertainty.

This is the quiet mathematics of line shopping; small differences in price compound faster than most bettors realize.

Over many bets, the difference between profitability and losing your bankroll is often just the discipline to compare every market, every time. BtrBet was built for exactly that.


Diff of the Day for May 15

**⚾️ The Weekly MLB Contest is LIVE ⚾️**
From **May 11–17**, compete against other bettors for a **free month of BtrBet’s premium tools** — completely free to enter.

Track and submit **ANY MLB bet**; sides, totals, player props, live bets, and more.
If it’s an MLB market on BtrBet, it counts in the contest.

Whether you’re firing player props every day or grinding live edges late at night, this contest is open to every type of MLB bettor.

**🏆 One week. Every MLB market. Free entry.**
Join now and see how you stack up.

Weekly MLB Contest for May 11-17

The Mets have controlled this matchup so far at Coors Field, winning both completed head-to-head games against Colorado by scores of 4-2 and 10-5. Across those two games, New York has outscored the Rockies 14-7 while showing two very different paths to victory: one powered by pitching and run prevention, the other fueled by sustained offensive pressure.

**Mets Moneyline (-138)**
New York enters this matchup with recent momentum in the series and a clear offensive edge. The Mets broke out for 10 runs and 15 hits in the latest meeting, consistently applying pressure throughout the lineup. Even in the lower-scoring 4-2 win, New York controlled the game with efficient pitching and timely hitting. Colorado has struggled to contain the Mets once runners reach base, and the Rockies’ pitching staff has already allowed New York to post both a high-contact game and an efficient scoring performance in this series.

**Mets Team Total Hits Under 9.5 (-110)**
This play leans on the idea that the Mets can still win without repeating their 15-hit explosion from the previous matchup. In the earlier 4-2 victory, New York recorded just 4 hits total, showing that their offensive outcomes against Colorado have varied significantly game-to-game. While Coors Field can inflate offense, a 9.5-hit line is still relatively high, requiring another sustained barrage of baserunners to go over. If the Mets convert scoring chances efficiently rather than relying on pure hit volume, this under can still cash even in a competitive offensive environment.

Mets Seek Third Straight Strong Showing vs. Rockies

The NBA postseason starts now.

The 2026 SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament tips off April 14–17. Eight teams. Two playoff spots per conference. No margin for error.

We’re running a free-to-enter betting contest alongside it:

Top 5 finishers each win **2 free months** of BtrBet’s paid tools.
Everyone who beats our co-founder *zachwick* will get a **full year free**.



2026 SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament Contest

I've been using [this model](https://github.com/btrbet/mmnn) to pick my men's and women's March Madness moneyline bets. In the men's tournament, it has gone 38-14. In the women's tournament, it has gone 38-6 thus far. The model is a neural network that is trained on the team stat differentials from all March Madness tournament games from 2010 - 2025. 

*You can train and run it yourself in less than 5 minutes following the instructions in the [linked repo](https://github.com/btrbet/mmnn).*

These are my picks for today's NCAAW tournament. In general I took the best moneyline price I could get across all of my outs unless it was shorter odds than about -300. In that case, I took the favorite against the spread.

Back to the basics

The tournament tips off with the First Four — and we’re turning it into a contest.
We’re running a *free-to-enter* BtrBet First Four Contest, open to all BtrBet users.

Here’s how it works:
1. Join [the contest](https://app.btrbet.app/contests/cmmuss64r000a2jgyydse0kvd)
2. Place your First Four bets using your contest bankroll of $500
3. After the final First Four game, we’ll rank all entrants by profit.

**The top four users with the highest profit will each win a free month of BtrBet’s paid tools.**

That’s it. No entry fee. No extra steps. Just track your bets and compete.
If you’re already planning to bet the First Four, this is a clean way to put your process on the board and see how you stack up.
And if you’re not tracking yet, this is a good place to start. Short window, clear results, real signal.

Let’s see who starts the tournament hot!

Enter the BtrBet First Four Contest (Free to Play)

Rolling with team totals tonight and keeping it simple: follow the points.

**Pistons TT o112.5**
Detroit has quietly been playing at a much faster, higher-scoring pace. They’ve averaged 119.7 PPG over the last 3, 124 over the last 5, and are still clearing 118+ over the last 10. Even zooming out to the last 24 games, they’re putting up 115.6 PPG, which gives us a little cushion above this number. As long as they’re getting decent shooting nights, this line feels a step behind recent form.

**Hornets TT o110.5**
Charlotte’s offense has been trending the right way too. They’re at 114+ PPG over the last 5 and 10 games, and a strong 117.2 PPG over the last 24. This total is basically asking them to play to their recent averages, not exceed them by much. With the price near even money, I’m happy to let the long-term scoring trend do the work.

Pistons @ Hornets: Follow the Points

# 🎯 Drake Maye — Under 30.5 Passing Attempts
This line is shaping up to be one of the more interesting quarterback props on the board.

**📌 Why I like it:**
Multiple sharp models and sportsbooks have the Maye passing attempts line around ~30.5 for this game, with early betting momentum trending Under as bettors anticipate a lower-volume passing script against a top-tier Seattle defense.

Maye hasn’t consistently gone past 30 attempts. He's averaging ~28.9 pass attempts per game this season.

Seattle’s defense has been elite at creating pressure and forcing quicker throws, which could limit Maye’s opportunities to stay in rhythm and rack up attempts.

If script leans toward run or short passes — especially early — this prop gets even more playable.

----

# 📈 Mack Hollins — Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

**📌 Why I like this one:**
Hollins has re-emerged as a key part of the Patriots’ passing game after returning from IR, and he saw meaningful targets in the AFC Championship.

In games where he’s been active, Hollins has shown the ability to move the chains, including double-digit target share weeks during the regular season.

Given opposing game scripts, if Maye ticks toward less volume than expected, short-to-intermediate targets to reliable vets like Hollins become profitable volume niches.


🏈 Super Bowl LX Prop Spotlight — Maye & Hollins Props 🏈

# Nets @ Mavericks: The One Where Unders Make Sense
Apologies for no video today. One of my kids stayed home sick from school, but I think that means I have an excuse to live on the couch watching basketball all evening under the pretense of snuggling with a really boogery and slightly feverish kid.

One of the games I'm most looking forward to watching is Nets @ Mavs. I always root for the Nets, but that isn't where my bets are.

## Point Spread

The Mavericks’ scoring profile stays strong no matter how far back you look, but it clearly sharpens as you narrow the window. Dallas is averaging **114.67 points per game** over their last 24, **112.80** over their last 10, and a still-solid **107.80** over their last five. Even with a slight dip in the most recent three-game stretch (**107.00 PPG**), their longer-term baseline remains strong.

The Nets tell a different story. Their offensive output steadily declines as you shrink the sample size: **108.79 PPG** over the last 24, **106.80** over the last 10, **106.40** over the last five, and just **102.00** over the last three. That downward trend matters when you remember the last meeting on **December 12**, when Dallas controlled the game and won **119–111**.

With Brooklyn’s scoring trending lower and Dallas maintaining a higher offensive floor, laying the points makes sense here. **Mavericks -4** aligns well with both recent form and the prior head-to-head result.

---

## Player Props

**Cooper Flagg — Under 22.5 points**

Flagg’s line is set aggressively given the game environment. Brooklyn’s recent offensive struggles suggest fewer possessions overall, and Dallas has shown an ability to keep opposing primary scorers from erupting. In a matchup where the Mavericks don’t need a big scoring night from Flagg to cover, the under feels like the sharper side.

**Klay Thompson — Under 12.5 points**

Thompson’s **12.5-point** line looks inflated relative to his role in this spot. Dallas’ scoring has been well distributed, and Thompson hasn’t consistently cleared this number in games where the Mavericks control pace and play from ahead. If Dallas dictates the flow as expected, his usage should stay modest, making **under 12.5** the preferred play.


Nets @ Mavericks: The One Where Unders Make Sense

# Point Spread
The Clippers have a pretty consistent average points-per-game no matter how far back you look. They're averaging 112.5 points over their last 24 games, 116.10 over their last 10 games, 113.60 over their last 5 games, and 111.67 over their last three games.

Back on December 28th, the Pistons put up only 99 points to the Clipper's 112. Even with that in mind, the Pistons' averages tell a slightly different story. They're averaging 118.75 points-per-game over their last 24, but only 114.33 over their last three. As you make that lookback window smaller, the Pistons' average points-per-game just keeps getting smaller. This makes sense when you remember that the Pistons lost Tobias Harris to a hip injury during the game against the Lakers on December 30th, and that Jalen Duren has been out with an ankle injury since rolling it against the Heat on January 1st.

Despite those injuries to some big-time components of their team, the Pistons continue to play really good ball. At -101, taking the Pistons -4 seems like the right bet.

# Player Props
Paul Reed has only had four games this season where he's scored more than 10.5 points. His average points-per-game for the season is 5.94, while his average for the last five and last three games is 7.40. That increased average points-per-game gets even bigger if you look at his average over the last three games of 8.33 points, despite playing no less than 26 minutes in each of those games.

Ausar Thompson had 6 points in 24 minutes the last time the Clippers and Pistons played each other (back on December 28th). He's averaging 11.05 points-per-game for the season and 9.6 over the last five and last three games. Betting u12.5 for him has a really strong likelihood of being a winning bet.

Clippers @ Pistons: The One Where the Trend Is the Tell

The New York Knicks come into Phoenix with a scoring profile that’s cooled recently after a hotter stretch. While their longer sample still shows offensive upside (nearly 119 PPG over the last 10–24 games), the last three have dipped closer to 111, suggesting a return to their preferred slower, half-court control. The Phoenix Suns show a similar pattern—solid efficiency over the past 10, but more modest production in the very short term—setting this up as a game where tempo and shot selection matter more than raw pace.

That context supports a narrow lean toward Knicks -1.5, with New York better equipped to grind out possessions and win close late-game sequences. It also frames the case for unders on both primary scorers: Jalen Brunson under 27.5 and Devin Booker under 26.5. With both teams’ recent scoring settling below their longer-term averages, and defensive attention likely concentrated at the point of attack, this profiles more as an execution game than a star-driven shootout.

Knicks @ Suns: The One Where Every Possession Matters

Even with Haliburton and Toppin out, tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Hornets still should be a fun one to watch. Despite being the underdog, I am confident that the Pacers can cover a +3.5 point spread. Check out the video to see how I used BtrBet's tools to decide which side of the player props to bet.

Pacers @ Hornets: Next Man Up

I found this nice 10 point wide team total middle that gives a 7.71% profit with BtrBet's Markets tool (search for a single market that has 'points', such as Team Total, Point Spread, Total Points, Player Pass Attempts, etc. and set your desired minimum width in the Middle Opportunities widget that appears). However, since both sides were at the same book, I got an even better price by betting it as a 2-leg SGP.

Bowl games are always hard to bet with all of the opt-outs, but I think that Michigan's off-field issues are going to have the team rattled enough that they will be held to less than 22.5 points. The QB battle between Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood is going to be fun to watch. They've both had strong showings all season and this game is going to come down to whichever defense can put together a good game.


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